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Climate Change Shapefiles IPCC Scenarios and Storylines

<-- Return to Climate Change Shapefiles

The A1 Scenario

The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid and successful economic development, low population growth, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into four groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system.

A1B Scenario

A1B Scenario Run set is represented by the five ensemble members. Climate models are an imperfect representation of the earth's climate system and climate modelers employ a technique called ensembling to capture the range of possible climate states. A climate model run ensemble consists of two or more climate model runs made with the exact same climate model, using the exact same boundary forcings, where the only difference between the runs is the initial conditions.

An individual simulation within a climate model run ensemble is referred to as an ensemble member. The different initial conditions result in different simulations for each of the ensemble members due to the nonlinearity of the climate model system. Essentially, the earth's climate can be considered to be a special ensemble that consists of only one member. Averaging over a multi-member ensemble of model climate runs gives a measure of the average model response to the forcings imposed on the model. For more information about ensemble members see Help.

Main characteristics of A1B scenario include: low population growth, very high GDP growth, very high energy use, low-medium land use changes, medium resource (mainly oil and gas) availability, rapid pace and direction of technological change favoring balanced development. For more information on A1B Scenario read IPCC special report on Emissions Scenarios: Summary for policymakers or Full report.

B1 Scenario

The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with low population growth, but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.

Main characteristics of B1 scenario include: low population growth, high GDP growth, low energy use, high land use changes, low resource (mainly oil and gas) availability, medium pace and direction of technological change favoring efficiency and dematerialization. For more information on A2 Scenario read IPCC special report on Emissions Scenarios: Summary for policymakers or Full report.

A2 Scenario

A2 Scenario Run set is represented by the five ensemble members. Climate models are an imperfect representation of the earth's climate system and climate modelers employ a technique called ensembling to capture the range of possible climate states. A climate model run ensemble consists of two or more climate model runs made with the exact same climate model, using the exact same boundary forcings, where the only difference between the runs is the initial conditions.

An individual simulation within a climate model run ensemble is referred to as an ensemble member. The different initial conditions result in different simulations for each of the ensemble members due to the nonlinearity of the climate model system. Essentially, the earth's climate can be considered to be a special ensemble that consists of only one member. Averaging over a multi-member ensemble of model climate runs gives a measure of the average model response to the forcings imposed on the model. For more information about ensemble members see Help.

The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very differentiated and heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Emphasis on economic, social, and cultural interactions between regions is less than in other storylines. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in high population growth. Economic development is uneven, the income gap between now-industrialized and developing parts of the world does not narrow, and per capita economic growth and technological change are more fragmented and slower than in other storylines.

Main characteristics A2 scenario include: high population growth, medium GDP growth, high energy use, medium-high land use changes, low resource (mainly oil and gas) availability, slow pace and direction of technological change favoring regional economic development. For more information on A2 Scenario read IPCC special report on Emissions Scenarios: Summary for policymakers or Full report. A2 Scenario Run set is represented by the five ensemble members. Climate models are an imperfect representation of the earth's climate system and climate modelers employ a technique called ensembling to capture the range of possible climate states. A climate model run ensemble consists of two or more climate model runs made with the exact same climate model, using the exact same boundary forcings, where the only difference between the runs is the initial conditions.

An individual simulation within a climate model run ensemble is referred to as an ensemble member. The different initial conditions result in different simulations for each of the ensemble members due to the nonlinearity of the climate model system. Essentially, the earth's climate can be considered to be a special ensemble that consists of only one member. Averaging over a multi-member ensemble of model climate runs gives a measure of the average model response to the forcings imposed on the model. For more information about ensemble members see Help.

20th Century Historical Run

20th Century Historical Run has model input forcings or initial conditions (e.g., solar irradiance, ozone, sulfates, greenhouse gases) that are temporally and spatially varying from the period 1870-2000, representing changes in the atmospheric concentrations of sulfates, ozone, greenhouse gasses, as well as the impact of volcanic eruptions, and other quantities. Solar irradiance is varied according to one interpretation of observations.

20th Century Historical Run set is represented by the five ensemble members. Climate models are an imperfect representation of the earth's climate system and climate modelers employ a technique called ensembling to capture the range of possible climate states. A climate model run ensemble consists of two or more climate model runs made with the exact same climate model, using the exact same boundary forcings, where the only difference between the runs is the initial conditions.

An individual simulation within a climate model run ensemble is referred to as an ensemble member. The different initial conditions result in different simulations for each of the ensemble members due to the nonlinearity of the climate model system. Essentially, the earth's climate can be considered to be a special ensemble that consists of only one member. Averaging over a multi-member ensemble of model climate runs gives a measure of the average model response to the forcings imposed on the model.

Summary from Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report

Temperature and sea level rise for each SRES scenario family

There are six families of SRES Scenarios, and AR4 provides projected temperature and sea level rises (excluding future rapid dynamical changes in ice flow[5])for each scenario family.

  • Scenario B1
    • Best estimate temperature rise of 1.8 ºC with a likely range of 1.1 to 2.9 ºC (3.2 ºF with a likely range of 2.0 to 5.2 ºF)
    • Sea level rise likely range [18 to 38 cm] (7 to 15 inches)
  • Scenario A1T
    • Best estimate temperature rise of 2.4 ºC with a likely range of 1.4 to 3.8 ºC (4.3 ºF with a likely range of 2.5 to 6.8 ºF)
    • Sea level rise likely range [20 to 45 cm] (8 to 18 inches)
  • Scenario B2
    • Best estimate temperature rise of 2.4 ºC with a likely range of 1.4 to 3.8 ºC (4.3 ºF with a likely range of 2.5 to 6.8 ºF)
    • Sea level rise likely range [20 to 43 cm] (8 to 17 inches)
  • Scenario A1B
    • Best estimate temperature rise of 2.8 ºC with a likely range of 1.7 to 4.4 ºC (5.0 ºF with a likely range of 3.1 to 7.9 ºF)
    • Sea level rise likely range [21 to 48 cm] (8 to 19 inches)
  • Scenario A2
    • Best estimate temperature rise of 3.4 ºC with a likely range of 2.0 to 5.4 ºC (6.1 ºF with a likely range of 3.6 to 9.7 ºF)
    • Sea level rise likely range [23 to 51 cm] (9 to 20 inches)
  • Scenario A1FI
    • Best estimate temperature rise of 4.0 ºC with a likely range of 2.4 to 6.4 ºC (7.2 ºF with a likely range of 4.3 to 11.5 ºF)
    • Sea level rise likely range [26 to 59 cm] (10 to 23 inches)

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